IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Abilene Christian
Southland
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.7	#173
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.7	#181
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.4	#207

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.7	#148

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	21.3%	26.8%	17.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.7	14.4	15.1

.500 or above	84.1%	93.7%	76.8%
.500 or above in Conference	91.5%	95.2%	88.6%
Conference Champion	24.5%	30.9%	19.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.5%	0.2%	0.8%

First Four	3.1%	2.3%	3.7%
First Round	20.1%	26.1%	15.5%
Second Round	1.7%	2.6%	1.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Neutral) - 43.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 2	2 - 5
Quad 4	12 - 3	14 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	142	East Tennessee St.	L	67-69	43%
Dec 05, 2020	340	Tarleton St.	W	80-63	94%
Dec 09, 2020	14	@ Texas Tech	L	60-79	5%
Dec 22, 2020	46	@ Arkansas	L	68-82	11%
Jan 02, 2021	236	Lamar	W	74-67	72%
Jan 06, 2021	339	@ Houston Baptist	W	90-79	83%
Jan 09, 2021	303	@ TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	70-65	65%
Jan 16, 2021	319	SE Louisiana	W	81-68	86%
Jan 20, 2021	246	@ Sam Houston St.	W	75-73	55%
Jan 23, 2021	285	Central Arkansas	W	83-74	79%
Jan 27, 2021	136	Stephen F. Austin	W	74-73	52%
Jan 30, 2021	336	@ Incarnate Word	W	75-64	81%
Feb 06, 2021	236	@ Lamar	W	71-70	53%
Feb 10, 2021	339	Houston Baptist	W	93-76	93%
Feb 13, 2021	303	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	73-62	82%
Feb 20, 2021	319	@ SE Louisiana	W	78-71	71%
Feb 24, 2021	246	Sam Houston St.	W	78-70	73%
Feb 27, 2021	285	@ Central Arkansas	W	80-77	61%
Mar 03, 2021	136	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	71-76	33%
Mar 06, 2021	336	Incarnate Word	W	78-61	91%
Projected Record						13 - 7	11 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.2	1.5	5.1	7.9	7.1	2.7		24.5	1st
2nd										0.0	0.4	2.7	7.0	6.9	3.5	0.6			21.1	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	2.4	6.1	5.1	1.8	0.2	0.0			15.8	3rd
4th									0.1	1.7	5.1	4.2	0.9	0.0					11.9	4th
5th								0.0	0.8	3.5	3.0	0.7	0.0						8.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.3	2.2	3.0	0.7	0.0							6.2	6th
7th							0.1	1.2	2.3	0.9	0.0								4.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	1.6	0.9	0.1									3.2	8th
9th					0.0	0.2	1.0	0.7	0.1										2.0	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.2	0.0										1.3	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2												0.8	11th
12th		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0												0.4	12th
13th	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0														0.2	13th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	2.5	4.1	6.3	9.3	11.6	13.9	14.6	13.8	11.6	7.7	2.7			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	2.7		2.6	0.1
15-1	92.6%	7.1		5.6	1.4	0.0
14-2	68.6%	7.9		4.8	2.7	0.4	0.0
13-3	36.6%	5.1		1.7	2.5	0.8	0.1
12-4	10.5%	1.5		0.2	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0
11-5	1.3%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.0%	0.0						0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	24.5%	24.5		15.0	7.4	1.8	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	2.7%		64.6%	64.3%	0.4%	12.7				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	1.0		1.0%
15-1	7.7%		52.8%	52.8%	0.0%	13.9											0.0	0.0	0.2	1.1	1.6	1.0	0.2	3.6		0.0%
14-2	11.6%		43.8%	43.8%		14.6													0.0	0.6	1.6	2.0	0.7	6.5
13-3	13.8%		30.5%	30.5%		15.1													0.0	0.2	0.8	1.8	1.4	9.6
12-4	14.6%		20.7%	20.7%		15.5														0.0	0.2	1.1	1.7	11.5
11-5	13.9%		14.2%	14.2%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.4	1.4	11.9
10-6	11.6%		6.1%	6.1%		15.9																0.1	0.6	10.9
9-7	9.3%		3.9%	3.9%		16.0																0.0	0.3	9.0
8-8	6.3%		1.9%	1.9%		16.0																	0.1	6.2
7-9	4.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	4.0
6-10	2.5%																							2.5
5-11	1.1%																							1.1
4-12	0.5%																							0.5
3-13	0.2%																							0.2
2-14	0.1%																							0.1
1-15	0.0%																							0.0
0-16	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		21.3%	21.3%	0.0%	14.7				0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	2.4	4.8	6.6	6.6	78.7		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	5.5			3.4		58.6	31.0	3.4				3.4